Working Paper Series

Gabi Waldhof / Ulrich Fritsche (2023): Understanding Moral Narratives as Drivers of Polarization about Genetically Engineered Crops (PDF)

Abstract: Motivated by an increasing interest in narratives in economics, we investigated the relevance of moral concerns in narratives for policy preferences. Specifically, taking the German debate about genetic engineering of foods (GE) as an example, we conducted a representative online survey in Germany to identify common narratives, their moral content, and related subjective images about GE. In line with previous research, we found that two-thirds of respondents choose to reject GE. Moreover, based on Moral Foundations Theory, we found that GE opponents much more frequently addressed the moral foundations Care and Sanctity in their stated narratives about GE. GE supporters most frequently addressed the moral foundation Loyalty in their stated narratives about GE. Also, subjective images about GE were much more negative among opponents than among supporters. However, the subjective images of opponents and supporters were in striking accordance about GE being a deviation from what is considered normal. Both sides overwhelmingly described images related to the enhancement of plants, as something strange, supersized, or artificial. In a linear regression model, we showed that the moral content of narratives about GE is indeed significantly related to the attitude towards this technology. In total, the findings suggest that the moral content of narratives is highly relevant for policy preferences, and should thus be considered in science communication and policymaking.

Lisa Demgensky / Ulrich Fritsche (2023): Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study (PDF)

Abstract: Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based narratives for the rising inflation together with socio-economic factors. A mixed-methods approach is used to classify the narratives, with clustering based on statistical criteria. A regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between socio-economic factors and narratives on the one hand, and the relationship between narratives/clusters of narratives and a de-anchoring of inflation expectations on the other hand. We can associate certain narratives with socio-economic characteristics and political partisanship. Narrative complexity is a function of education and literacy. Narrative clusters correspond to certain milieus and dimensions of socio-economic stratification. Narratives of supply shortages and price gouging are positively correlated with anchored expectations; demand and government plus other narratives are negatively correlated with anchored expectations.

Julian Jäger (2023): Immigration and Support for Anti-Immigrant Parties in Europe (PDF)

Abstract: My paper analyzes the link between immigration and support for anti-immigrant parties in Europe. I assemble a unique data set on the share of foreigners for 356 regions in 26 European countries and construct a novel scale for the antiimmigrant position of political parties. I find that Europeans are less supportive of anti-immigrant parties in regions with a higher share of foreigners, consistent with group contact theory. The negative association is driven by Europeans with proredistribution attitudes and is stronger among those with tertiary education, who live in the city, are in the labor force, of younger age, and female. I address several endogeneity concerns, e.g., using a shift-share instrumental variable approach, which provides evidence for a causal channel.

Karsten Wenzlaff / Sebastian Späth (2022): Smarter than Humans? Validating how OpenAI’s ChatGPT model explains Crowdfunding, Alternative Finance and Community Finance (PDF)

Abstract: The ChatGPT model of OpenAI allows users to ask questions, which are answered through an artificial intelligence trained through supervised, reinforced machine-learning. The answers depend on the input which the algorithm receives from the users, as well as from the content it has been given. The paper explores how answers to definitions about crowdfunding, alternative finance and community finance deviate or correspond to answers given by real human-beings in academic scholarship. Crowdfunding, alternative finance and community finance are chosen because academic literature does not provide consistent definitions on each of these terms, but some definitions are accepted by more scholars. By addressing the research gap concerning the accuracy of answers generated by an artificial intelligence, the paper contributes to the growing literature of implications of textual artificial intelligence on academia.

Simon Barth (2022): Towards Integrating Social Dynamics into Climate Economic Scenarios Literature Review (PDF)

Abstract: Climate policy options are usually elaborated scientifically by Integrated Assessment Models that combine the economic system, the energy system and the climate system in one comprehensive framework. Most of them follow a neo-classical economic paradigm and calculate cost-efficient technological transformation pathways of the energy system. Critique has grown that the real-world problem is more complex especially with regard to the dynamics reigning in human societies. These should be considered in the models in order to derive effective policy recommendations. This literature review presents and structures a list of publications making first steps into this direction, either by delivering promising methodological suggestions, by reporting evidence on social dynamics or by presenting first model integrations. By this, the paper illuminates the scientific challenge of integrating social dynamics into climate economic scenarios and builds a knowledge basis for future research endeavors.

Markus Dressel / Hermann Held (2022): Klimakrise und tiefe Unsicherheit: Welche Antworten bietet die Theologie? Ein Literaturüberblick (PDF)

Kurzbeschreibung: Klimapolitische Entscheidungen sind herausfordernd. Eine besondere Schwierigkeit liegt in der Folgeabschätzung: Meist sind zwar die möglichen Handlungsfolgen, nicht aber deren Wahrscheinlichkeiten bekannt (Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit). Mitunter ist sogar unklar, welche Handlungsfolgen überhaupt in Betracht kommen (Entscheidungen unter tiefer Unsicherheit). Zudem sind die potenziellen ökologischen, wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Folgen oft nur schwer mit einander vergleichbar. Es stellt sich daher die Frage, welche Entscheidungsregel für klimapolitische Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit und tiefer Unsicherheit angemessen ist. Die vorliegende Arbeit betrachtet dieses Problem aus einer bisher kaum diskutierten Perspektive. Sie fragt, ob religiöse Traditionen als Quellen für Entscheidungsprinzipien im Klimakontext infrage kommen. Hierfür werden die Ergebnisse einer explorativen Literaturstudie vorgestellt. Betrachtet werden theologische, religionswissenschaftliche und philosophische Quellen aus dem Zeitraum von 1960 bis 2015. Es wird gezeigt, dass diese Quellen interessante Anknüpfungspunkte für Entscheidungsprobleme im Klimakontext bieten, sowohl hinsichtlich entscheidungstheoretischer als auch weiterer Fragestellung, etwa zum Verhältnis von Religion und Ökologie. Gleichzeitig werden auch die Grenzen dieser theologischen Impulse für klimapolitische Entscheidungsprobleme diskutiert.

Gaedke, Lorenz / Ćuk, Ammar / Manderscheid, Katharina (2022): Ungleicher Familienalltag durch die Corona-Pandemie (PDF)

Nowak, Iris / Frieß, Wiebke / Menz, Wolfgang / Rastetter, Daniela / Schramm, Florian (2022): Teilhabe oder Reproduktion sozialer Ungleichheit durch Crowdwork? Empirische Einblicke in Erfahrungen von Menschen mit Beeinträchtigungen und Menschen mit Sorgeverpflichtungen (PDF)

Kurzbeschreibung: Dieses Working Paper stellt die Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts „Teilhabe durch Crowdworking“ (Universität Hamburg) dar, in dem die Partizipation von Menschen mit Behinderung und Menschen mit Sorgeverpflichtungen an ortsungebundener Plattformarbeit untersucht wurde. Einleitend werden die Problematiken von Crowdwork erörtert. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird ausgehend von quantitativen und qualitativen Befragungen die soziale Situation der Crowdworker*innen auf zwei Plattformen exemplarisch dargestellt. Anhand dieser Empirie analysieren wir spezifische Formen der Teilhabe der beiden Fokusgruppen. Auf dieser Basis setzen wir Crowdwork ins Verhältnis zu Forderungen nach Inklusion, Geschlechtergerechtigkeit und einer besseren Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Erwerbsarbeit. Wir diskutieren abschließend die Frage nach der Reproduktion sozialer Ungleichheit durch Crowdwork und verorten dies in sozialpolitischen Diskussionen über die (globale) Regulierung von Plattformarbeit.

Bublitz, Elisabeth / Wang, Hequn / Jäger, Julian / Beblo, Miriam / Lohmann, Henning (2022): Perceived Income Positions and Attitudes towards EU Inequality - A Cross-Country Survey Experiment (PDF)

Diaf, Sami (2022): Policy Preference at Central Banks: Quantifying Monetary Policy Signals using Keyword Topic Models (PDF)

Markowsky, Eva / Wolf, Fridolin / Schäfer, Marie (2022): Immigrant Bilingualism in the German Labour Market – Between Human Capital, Social Networks, and Ethnic Marginalisation (PDF)

Du Plessis, Emile / Fritsche, Ulrich (2022): New Forecasting Methods for an Old Problem: Predicting 147 Years of Systemic Financial Crises (PDF)

Bublitz, Elisabeth / Jäger, Julian / Wang, Hequn / Beblo, Miriam / Lohmann, Henning (2022): Where do I stand in the EU? Income Comparisons and Perceptions (PDF)

Markowsky, Eva (2022): Culture, Female Labour Force Participation, and Selective Migration: New Meta-Analytic Evidence (PDF)

Otto, Felix / Held, Hermann (2022): Targets in International Climate Policy: (Mis)understanding Two Degrees? (PDF)

Emme, Verena / Henze, Justus / Reichmann, Werner / Weinig, Max (2021): Economics in Action – die Erstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen in der (Corona-)Krise (PDF)

Tsang, Andrew (2021): Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy (PDF)

Waibel, Stine / Rüger, Heiko / Ette, Andreas (2020): Who benefits? Heterogeneous effects of international student mobility on occupational attainment (PDF)

Hillebrand, Sebastian (2020): Die Nachfolgerauswahl in Zeiten des technologischen Wandels (PDF)

Hillebrand, Sebastian / Teichert, Thorsten (2020): Successor selection in times of continuity and renewal - A discrete choice-experiment (PDF)

Hillebrand, Sebastian (2020): Product development and (international) market development as reinforcing growth strategies - The role of familiy control (PDF)

Stein, Lukas / Khabbazan, Mohammad M. / Held, Hermann (2020): Replacing temperature targets by subsidiary targets: How accurate are they? – Overshooting vs. economic losses (PDF)

Roshan, Elnaz / Khabbazan, Mohammad M. / Held, Hermann (2020): A Scheme for Jointly Trading-off Costs and Risks of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation Under Long-tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions