Conference "Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century" (10/2018)
Date: |
10-11 October 2018 |
Program |
Venue: |
Universitaet Hamburg
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Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century
Universitaet Hamburg, Germany, 10-11 October 2018
Few areas in economics are as controversial as economic forecasting. While the field has sparked great hopes for the prediction of economic trends and events throughout the 20th and 21st century, economic forecasts have often proved inaccurate or unreliable, thus provoking severe criticism in times of unpredicted crisis.
Despite these failures, economic forecasting has not lost in importance. Forecasting constitutes one of the most important activities carried out by institutes of economic research. Economic forecasts receive extensive media coverage and attain great public attention. Notwithstanding the challenges and difficulties economic forecasting faces, it apparently inhabits a crucial place in modern industrial societies.
This indicates that the role of economic forecasts is not solely to predict economic trends and events. Rather, forecasts seem to constitute a means of observing economic developments that helps actors to coordinate and stabilize their expectations of an uncertain future. Possibly, whether an individual forecast comes to pass is of minor importance. Yet, the credibility of forecasts appears to be of central importance.
The conference aims to bring together scholars from different disciplinary backgrounds to discuss the history of economic forecasting in the 20th and 21st century. Papers exploring the following questions are especially welcome:
- How have forecasting techniques changed over time? Which continuities and discontinuities can be identified in the history of economic forecasting? How did economic crises affect the practice of economic forecasting?
- Economic crises are often preceded by inaccurate or incorrect forecasts that provoke over-generalising and emotional criticism. The conference aims to explore the interactions between economic forecasters and the public. How did forecasters respond to the criticism? How did forecasters handle public expectations and disappointments? And how did they restore the credibility of their forecasts after economic crises and forecasting failures?
- The over-generalising criticism that gains momentum in times of crisis is oftentimes directed at the entire economics profession. The conference seeks to examine the links between economic forecasting and macroeconomics. In what ways did economic crises and the criticism that accompanied them affect macroeconomics? Did macroeconomists try to influence the forecasting techniques used at research institutes? Or do both fields understand themselves as largely separate from each other, other than the generalising criticism implies?
The purpose of this two-day interdisciplinary conference is to foster the exchange between forecasters, economists, historians, and other scholars from the social sciences and the humanities. Contributions from the fields of history, sociology, philosophy, psychology, and economics are equally welcome.
The Program at a Glance
Futures Past. Economic Forecasting in the 20th and 21st Century
Wednesday 10.10.2018 |
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12:00-13:00 | Registration |
13:00-13:15 | Welcoming Note Anke Gerber (member of the Faculty Board) |
13:15-13:30 | Opening Remarks |
13:30-14:30 | Keynote: Jamie L. Pietruska (Rutgers University) "Economic Forecasting and the Quest for Certainty in the Long Gilded Age" |
14:30-14:45 | Coffee break |
14:45-16:15 |
Session I - "Culture of Prediction"? Economic Forecasting in Context (Köster) |
1. | Laetitia Lenel (Humboldt University) "From Predicting to Creating the Future: Different Temporalities in Economic Forecasting" |
2. | Vera Linke (Bielefeld University) "Promises to Pay: Assuring Stakeholder of Insurance Offices' Future Solvency" |
3. | Stefan Schwarzkopf (Copenhagen Business School) “Market Atmospheres: An Alternative Genealogy of Financial Barometers” |
16:15-16:45 | Coffee break |
16:45-18:15 |
Session II – Institutional and Interactional Dimensions of Economic Forecasting (Fritsche) |
1. | Christoph Behrens (Helmut-Schmidt-Universität) “Using Multivariate Random Forests to Study the Joint Efficiency of German Trade Forecasts” |
2. | Olivier Pilmis (SciencesPo, Paris) “Changing One’s Mind. Forecast Revisions as Institutional and Informational Dynamics” |
3. | Timo Walter (Max-Planck-Institute Cologne) “Polysemous expectations and the Janus face of forecasting: Examining the tensions between forecasts’ prediction and coordination functions in the Fed’s transition to expectation management” |
19:00 | Conference Dinner |
Thursday 11.10.2018 |
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09:30-10:30 | Keynote: Tara M. Sinclair (George-Washington-University) “Continuities and Discontinuities in Forecasting” |
10:30-10:45 | Coffee break |
10:45-12:15 |
Session III - Practices of Economic Forecasting: Foresight, Forecast, Foretalk (Lenel) |
1. | Jan Logemann (University of Göttingen) “Consumer Confidence Measurements: The Transnational History of an Economic Indicator” |
2. | Werner Reichmann (University of Konstanz) “Social Interaction and Economic Forecasting” |
3. | Michael Roos (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) "More Foresight, Less Forecasting in Macroeconomics" |
12:15-13:45 | Lunch & Walk |
13:45-15:15 |
Session IV – Changes in Practice: The Effect of Crises on Forecasting Practices (Heinisch) |
1. | Michael Bauer (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) “Interest Rates Under Falling Stars” |
2. | Jörg Döpke (University of Applied Sciences Merseburg) “Has Macroeconomic Forecasters’ attitude and opennes towards new methods changed after the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Recession? - Evidence from a German survey” |
3. | Marion Ronca (University of Zurich) “The Economist as Futurologist: The Making and Reception of the Perspektivstudien in Switzerland 1964-1975” |
15:15-15:45 | Coffee break |
15:45-17:00 | Closing Discussion: “The History and Future of Economic Forecasting: Challenges and Opportunities" |