Research

Research Area: Computer-Assisted Text Analysis

• Analysis of text corpora containing economic policy statements

  This involves the application of computational linguistics methods to (larger) text corpora, with a focus on the operationalisation of concepts such as ‘narrative’ (in the sense of the literature on ‘Narrative Economics’, Shiller, 2018) or the measurement of ideological and/or theoretical positions using appropriate methods. In a project funded by the DFG from 2019 to 2022, methods from political science and computational linguistics were used to analyse the experience-expectation nexus, with particular focus on the role of ideological positions on economic policy measures in the adjustment of expectations. Furthermore, concepts for operationalising narratives are being developed using various text-analytical methods (thematic field models, latent semantic analysis, structural thematic field models). Various PhD projects at the Chair focus on the computer-assisted content analysis of discourses on labour market and distributional issues.

• Inflation Narratives
  Since 2023, research into narratives has also been continued as part of the project ‘Inflation narratives in large text corpora’. The project is funded by the Excellence Initiative as a cross-disciplinary lab in cooperation with the Semantic Systems Research Group (Prof. Dr. Ricardo Usbeck) in the Department of Computer Science at the University of Hamburg.

• Contact
  Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche
  Max Weinig
  Lisa Marie Wegner
  Florian Baumgartinger

   

Research Area: Expectations

• Inflation forecasts and households’ perceptions of inflation
  This research focuses on the application of decision-making theories and perceptual heuristics grounded in behavioural economics to the formation of expectations, particularly amongst households. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of media coverage in this process. This research area was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) between 2008 and 2012. As part of the second wave of the Hamburg BUS survey, the inflation perceptions and expectations of Hamburg households were examined in detail according to socio-economic groups and risk assessments. In 2015, Prof. Dr. Lena Dräger and Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche examined this issue in detail as part of the project ‘Households’ Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation and their Relationship to Saving and Consumption Decisions: Survey Evidence for Germany', which was funded by the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Hamburg Head Office, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Schleswig-Holstein. In 2024, a representative household survey on inflation expectations, inflation preferences, perceptions of inequality and narratives was conducted and analysed.

• Contact
  Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche
  Max Weinig

 

Research Area: Forecasting

• The behaviour of professional forecasters
  This area of research examines, amongst other things, when, how and why herd behaviour occurs amongst forecasters. Particular attention is paid to distinguishing between information rigidities and herd behaviour. It also investigates the role played by fundamental crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic. From 2015 to 2019, the German Research Foundation (DFG) funded the project ‘Macroeconomic Forecasting in Great Crisis’ (in collaboration with Prof. D.r Jörg Döpke, Merseburg University of Applied Sciences, and Prof. Dr. Christian Pierdzioch, HafenCity University Hamburg) as part of Priority Programme 1859 ‘Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Action’.

• Contact person
  Prof. Dr. Ulrich Fritsche