How can the Paris Agreement be achieved with regard to coal-fired power plants?CSS member Felix Schenuit and colleagues have published a paper on the conditions for an early coal phase-out

26 September 2022, by CSS

Photo: Nick Nice Unsplash

Associate CSS member Felix Schenuit together with researchers Elina Brutschin, Bas van Ruijven and Keywan Riahi, has published a paper in Politics and Governance exploring the conditions for an early coal phase-out. In order to meet the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement, many countries will need to shut down their coal-fired power plants early, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetime, potentially resulting in significant stranded assets. This could be a major challenge, especially for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is increasing and which are currently expanding their coal-fired power plants. Recent research shows that countries with aging power plants and declining coal consumption are more likely to exit coal, but little is known about where, why, and how coal plants are being prematurely retired. In the context of the hybrid Paris Agreement, attention is increasingly shifting to national mitigation capacity and, given vested interests in various sectors, to state capacity to implement the changes needed for deep decarbonization. In this article, the researchers examine these capacities in the context of the coal phase-out. In doing so, they conclude that state capacity is a robust predictor of overall and early coal phase-out. They also identify three main strategies that states can use to phase out coal plants early. Finally, they suggest that future research should more systematically examine which strategies might be most promising in regions and countries in need of rapid coal phase-out, taking into account their respective policy structures as well as the impact such strategies might have on global climate change mitigation efforts.

The paper can be found here.