False Consensus Beliefs

Following the beliefs-externalities-legitimacy (BEL) framework, Subproject “False Consensus Beliefs” hypothesizes that in a globalized and digitalized information environment (driver: globalization & technological change), selective exposure to information about societal preferences (externality) causes false consensus beliefs that negatively affect the legitimacy of democratic institutions, which may, in turn, lead to disruptive big structural change. By false consensus beliefs, we re-fer to false beliefs about a majority of others sharing own opinions. While the human tendency towards overestimating support for one’s own views is well-established by a voluminous literature in social psychology, the potential consequences of this tendency for political legitimacy have received little attention. In line with the conflict-escalation hypothesis, we hypothesize that the legitimacy of political institutions central for the societal structure may be questioned, and compliance with them withdrawn, when individuals hold false consensus beliefs, which could lead to disruptive big structural change. As a bridging project, "False Consensus Beliefs" also addresses the conflict-abatement hypothesis, in that it explores how false consensus beliefs can be reduced, and legitimacy re-established, so that big structural change be incremental. The subproject combines analytical modeling including agent-based models for theoretical insights, observational analyses of survey data for inferences about patterns in the general population, and analyses of survey and laboratory experiments for causal identification. Overall, the subproject will provide a better understanding of the political consequences of false consensus beliefs, thereby promising to uncover mechanisms that may link changing information environments with (demands for) disruptive political change.