Be Net Zero

Subproject „BeNetZero“ addresses the conflict-escalation hypothesis in the context of climate change (driver). In the framework of the beliefs-externalities-legitimacy (BEL) framework, "BeNetZero" extends the literature on climate policy by providing causal evidence on the role of beliefs in undermining the legitimacy of parliaments when attempting to tackle the externalities of climate change. Climate policies generate costs to local constituencies in the short run to prevent higher global costs in the long run. We conjecture that the legitimacy of the institutions that legislate them depends among other factors on the perception that the sacrifices are not in vain (output legitimacy), and that the legislated policy is backed by a majority (input legitimacy). To test this, we will conduct experiments where we exogenously induce changes in beliefs about both effectiveness of (first-order belief) and public support (second-order beliefs) for specific policies. If the willingness to personally bear the costs of the policy diminishes, distributional conflicts escalate, inducing demands to abolish the indicted instrument, climate targets, or the institutions blamed for their failure, altogether. The feedback on how widely specific positions are shared in the population and sub-populations affects legitimacy and the willingness to take actions towards disruptive change. The subproject also elicits how members of (EU, federal, state, local) parliaments respond to changes in legitimacy. This provides seminal insights on the role of legitimacy during the big structural change towards a net zero society.