Env. & Dev. Econ. Research SeminarA large household panel survey on climate change perceptions and adaptation in Germany: Effects of flood experience on climate beliefs and an overview of other topicsDaniel Osberghaus
11. Dezember 2019
Abstract: This talk summarises some of the works which are based on the Eval-MAP dataset. Eval-Map is a household panel survey on climate change perceptions and adaptation amongst more than 6,000 different households conducted in Germany during 2012-2015. After introducing the dataset, I will give a short overview of different ongoing empirical analyses, e.g. on the effectiveness of flood awareness campaigns of the German insurance industry, and on the relation of income with flood risk, adaptation, and vulnerability. The main part of the talk will focus on the question how flood experience shapes beliefs in the existence of global climate change. Based on a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that flood-affected individuals tend to retain their pre-flood beliefs regardless whether they believed in climate change before the flood. Hence, there is a case of confirmation bias: extreme weather experience seems to be interpreted and evaluated in a way that confirms prior beliefs. This shows that climate change beliefs may not converge after the experience of extreme weather events such as floods. These events rather have the potential to increase polarization of public opinion about climate change which is an important finding for policymakers and public authorities.
Zeit: 12:15 - 13.45 Uhr
Raum: 0079 VMP 5