Microeconomics SeminarConfidence and Online Social Influence: Can Confidence-Sharing Reduce MisinformationMelis Kartal (WU Vienna), VMP 5 (Room 0079)

27 November 2025

Abstract: We investigate whether allowing individuals to share their confidence alongside (true or false) information affects online social influence in neutral and politically charged settings. Using a large-scale online experiment with more than 3,600 U.S. participants, we compare two conditions: one in which senders share only their answers and another in which they can additionally report confidence. We find that confidence sharing significantly improves information quality, with stronger effects in neutral questions. The benefits of confidence sharing vary sharply across demographic groups: women, less educated, and lower-income participants gain significantly from confidence sharing but not from answer-only sharing, while men, higher-educated, and higher-income benefit similarly across conditions. These patterns are consistent with differences in how individuals model others' competence---some assuming identical competence across all and others accounting for heterogeneity---leading to distinct sharing behaviors and responses to shared information. Confidence sharing improves information by attenuating these differences.