A Climate Transformation Outlook for Germany
Background and objectives of the new study series
Germany has set itself the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2045. Even though this appears technically and economically feasible, implementation is lagging behind the requirements. The highly complex transformation process is challenging existing interests, habits and business models. As a consequence, the social hurdles to implementing ambitious climate protection appear high. On the other hand, however, ambitious climate policy is also driven and dynamized by societal engagement and civil society activism.
Against this background, the Mercator Endowed Chair of Sociology is developing methods to assess whether a transformation to net zero emissions in Germany appears plausible from a social science point of view. In an annual assessment, we examine selected social drivers and their respective dynamics, contextual conditions and effects, and assess their collective contribution to the transformation in Germany.
The first Climate Transformation Outlook (Klimawende Ausblick) was published in May 2024. It lays the foundation for subsequent studies by adapting the analytical framework for the plausibility of transformation processes developed in the Excellence Cluster CLICCS to the context of the German low-carbon transformation. In addition, four of a total of twelve social drivers are examined in a first partial analysis: German climate policy in the European context, global climate governance, climate movements and protests, and climate litigation.
Hauptaussagen in Kürze
- A “climate transition society” requires not only technological innovations and a decarbonization of the economy, but also transformed production and consumption practices, a changed role of the state, and a strong civil society.
- Achieving climate neutrality by 2045 does not seem plausible at present in light of existing political and legal measures and taking into account foreseeable political developments. emission reductions achieved so far are often not secure, and the political scope for investment in Germany and Europe is tightly constrained by strict fiscal and debt rules.
- Following the adoption of overarching goals and key political and legal instruments, the climate transition is entering a new phase in which an increase in implementation conflicts is to be expected.
- The preliminary analysis of four social drivers in this study shows broad and active support for the climate transition. This broad resonance of climate policy also exists for environmental issues, despite an observable social polarization.
- However, the partial analysis also shows a reduction in the scope of civil society activities due to legislation, police enforcement, and financial constraints (stringing spaces). This weakens the societal support for the climate transition.
- The analysis also shows cross-driver interactions, for example between climate litigation, climate protests, and climate policy, through which the positive dynamics of individual drivers reinforce each other. Such interactions could be harnessed even more effectively for the transformation in future.