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Mercator Endowed Chair of Sociology on the Social Dynamics of Ecological Transformations
Sociologysocial dynamics of ecological transformation

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Climate Transformation Outlook 2025

Plausibility of the transformation in times of anti-ecological backlash and declining resonance

Key messages in brief

  • The transformation to climate neutrality requires profound social change that goes beyond technology and markets. This Climate Transformation Society combines enhanced state capacity, durable societal resonance for climate policy, and active civil society participation.
  • Our analysis shows that achieving climate neutrality in Germany by 2045 currently appears as not plausible. This assessment is based on an analysis of key social drivers in the political, economic, and civil society spheres.
  • Compared to the previous year, there is a notable decline in momentum for climate protection. No single driver provides comprehensive support for the transformation; climate lawsuits and municipal climate protection mostly support the low-carbon transformation; German climate policy, global climate governance, and the climate movement partly support the transformation; corporate action remains ambivalent, while consumption patterns prevent the transformation.
  • Political guidelines such as the Climate Protection Act and the EU Green Deal remain in place, but implementation gaps are growing. Increasing social resistance and political backlash undermine the stability and societal resonance of climate protection measures . 
    Economic growth as a legitimizing principle and growing social inequalities are key barriers of the transformation. Neither individual behavior nor voluntary commitments by companies are sufficient as long as structural conditions remain unchanged.
  • The climate movement is in a phase of reorientation with declining pressure, while climate lawsuits are gaining importance as a countercyclical driver. However, restrictions on fundamental freedoms jeopardize civil society's ability to organize and exert pressure. 
    Growing discrepancies between climate targets, implementation, and social justice are creating new pressure to act and potential for conflict. Unresolved tensions can intensify into self-reinforcing cascades of blockades and escalation.
  • Despite setbacks, opportunities exist in broad social support for climate protection, in the expansion of municipal climate protection capacities, and in linking of the climate transformation with broader aims of energy, industrial, and social policy.
  • The interdependencies between political, economic, and civil society processes in climate protection are increasing. These feedback loops could be used in a targeted manner to mobilize new social support for climate change.